diff --git a/Firmware/Marlin_main.cpp b/Firmware/Marlin_main.cpp
index fd819ed25..5ea788e79 100644
--- a/Firmware/Marlin_main.cpp
+++ b/Firmware/Marlin_main.cpp
@@ -7332,7 +7332,7 @@ Sigma_Exit:
 
 #ifdef THERMAL_MODEL
     /*!
-    ### M310 - Thermal model settings <a href="https://reprap.org/wiki/G-code#M310:_Temperature_model_settings">M310: Thermal model settings</a>
+    ### M310 - Thermal model settings <a href="https://reprap.org/wiki/G-code#M310:_Themal_model_settings">M310: Thermal model settings</a>
     #### Usage
 
         M310                                           ; report values
diff --git a/Firmware/eeprom.h b/Firmware/eeprom.h
index 4b0446a9e..cc6546b6f 100644
--- a/Firmware/eeprom.h
+++ b/Firmware/eeprom.h
@@ -92,7 +92,7 @@ static_assert(sizeof(Sheets) == EEPROM_SHEETS_SIZEOF, "Sizeof(Sheets) is not EEP
 | 0x0FF7 4087 | uint8   | EEPROM_CALIBRATION_STATUS_V1          | ffh 255      | ffh 255               | Calibration status (<v3.12)                       | ???          | D3 Ax0ff7 C1
 | ^           | ^       | ^                                     | 01h 1        | ^                     | Calibrated                                        | ^            | ^
 | ^           | ^       | ^                                     | e6h 230      | ^                     | needs Live Z adjustment                           | ^            | ^
-| ^           | ^       | ^                                     | ebh 235      | ^                     | needs Thermal Model calibration                      | ^            | ^
+| ^           | ^       | ^                                     | ebh 235      | ^                     | needs Thermal Model calibration                   | ^            | ^
 | ^           | ^       | ^                                     | f0h 240      | ^               __P__ | needs Z calibration                               | ^            | ^
 | ^           | ^       | ^                                     | fah 250      | ^                     | needs XYZ calibration                             | ^            | ^
 | ^           | ^       | ^                                     | 00h 0        | ^                     | Unknown (legacy)                                  | ^            | ^
diff --git a/Firmware/thermal_model.h b/Firmware/thermal_model.h
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..225c5c225
--- /dev/null
+++ b/Firmware/thermal_model.h
@@ -0,0 +1,125 @@
+// model-based temperature safety checker declarations
+#ifndef TEMP_MGR_INTV
+#error "this file is not a public interface, it should be used *only* within temperature.cpp!"
+#endif
+
+#include "planner.h"
+
+// shortcuts to get model defaults
+#define __THERMAL_MODEL_DEF(MODEL, VAR) THERMAL_MODEL_##MODEL##_##VAR
+#define _THERMAL_MODEL_DEF(MODEL, VAR)  __THERMAL_MODEL_DEF(MODEL, VAR)
+#define THERMAL_MODEL_DEF(VAR)          _THERMAL_MODEL_DEF(THERMAL_MODEL_DEFAULT, VAR)
+
+constexpr uint8_t THERMAL_MODEL_CAL_S = 60;     // Maximum recording length during calibration (s)
+constexpr uint8_t THERMAL_MODEL_CAL_R_STEP = 4; // Fan interpolation steps during calibration
+constexpr float THERMAL_MODEL_fE = 0.05;        // error filter (1st-order IIR factor)
+
+// transport delay buffer size (samples)
+constexpr uint8_t THERMAL_MODEL_MAX_LAG_SIZE = 8; // * TEMP_MGR_INTV = 2160
+
+// resistance values for all fan levels
+constexpr uint8_t THERMAL_MODEL_R_SIZE = (1 << FAN_SOFT_PWM_BITS);
+static const float THERMAL_MODEL_R_DEFAULT[THERMAL_MODEL_R_SIZE] PROGMEM = THERMAL_MODEL_DEF(Rv);
+
+namespace thermal_model {
+
+struct model_data
+{
+    // temporary buffers
+    float dT_lag_buf[THERMAL_MODEL_MAX_LAG_SIZE]; // transport delay buffer
+    uint8_t dT_lag_size = 0;                   // transport delay buffer size
+    uint8_t dT_lag_idx = 0;                    // transport delay buffer index
+    float dT_err_prev = 0;                     // previous temperature delta error
+    float T_prev = 0;                          // last temperature extruder
+
+    // configurable parameters
+    float P;                               // heater power (W)
+    float U;                               // linear temperature coefficient (W/K/W)
+    float V;                               // linear temperature intercept (W/W)
+    float C;                               // heatblock capacitance (J/K)
+    float fS;                              // sim. 1st order IIR filter factor (f=100/27)
+    uint16_t L;                            // sim. response lag (ms)
+    float R[THERMAL_MODEL_R_SIZE];            // heatblock resistance for all fan levels (K/W)
+    float Ta_corr;                         // ambient temperature correction (K)
+
+    // thresholds
+    float warn;                            // warning threshold (K/s)
+    float err;                             // error threshold (K/s)
+
+    // status flags
+    union
+    {
+        bool flags;
+        struct
+        {
+            bool uninitialized: 1;         // model is not initialized
+            bool error: 1;                 // error threshold set
+            bool warning: 1;               // warning threshold set
+        } flag_bits;
+    };
+
+    // pre-computed values (initialized via reset)
+    float C_i;                             // heatblock capacitance (precomputed dT/C)
+    float warn_s;                          // warning threshold (per sample)
+    float err_s;                           // error threshold (per sample)
+
+    // simulation functions
+    void reset(uint8_t heater_pwm, uint8_t fan_pwm, float heater_temp, float ambient_temp);
+    void step(uint8_t heater_pwm, uint8_t fan_pwm, float heater_temp, float ambient_temp);
+};
+
+static bool enabled;          // model check enabled
+static bool warn_beep = true; // beep on warning threshold
+static model_data data;       // default heater data
+
+static bool calibrated(); // return calibration/model validity status
+static void check();      // check and trigger errors or warnings based on current state
+
+// warning state (updated from from isr context)
+volatile static struct
+{
+    float dT_err;    // temperature delta error (per sample)
+    bool warning: 1; // warning condition
+    bool assert: 1;  // warning is still asserted
+} warning_state;
+
+static void handle_warning(); // handle warnings from user context
+
+#ifdef THERMAL_MODEL_DEBUG
+static struct
+{
+    volatile struct
+    {
+        uint32_t stamp;
+        int8_t delta_ms;
+        uint8_t counter;
+        uint8_t cur_pwm;
+        float cur_temp;
+        float cur_amb;
+    } entry;
+
+    uint8_t serial;
+    bool enabled;
+} log_buf;
+
+static void log_usr(); // user log handler
+static void log_isr(); // isr log handler
+#endif
+
+} // namespace thermal_model
+
+namespace thermal_model_cal {
+
+// recording scratch buffer
+struct rec_entry
+{
+    float temp;  // heater temperature
+    uint8_t pwm; // heater PWM
+};
+
+constexpr uint16_t REC_BUFFER_SIZE = THERMAL_MODEL_CAL_S / TEMP_MGR_INTV;
+static rec_entry* const rec_buffer = (rec_entry*)block_buffer; // oh-hey, free memory!
+static_assert(sizeof(rec_entry[REC_BUFFER_SIZE]) <= sizeof(block_buffer),
+    "recording length too long to fit within available buffer");
+
+} // namespace thermal_model_cal
diff --git a/Firmware/thermal_model/e3d_v6.h b/Firmware/thermal_model/e3d_v6.h
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..f034fd0c5
--- /dev/null
+++ b/Firmware/thermal_model/e3d_v6.h
@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+#pragma once
+
+#define THERMAL_MODEL_E3D_V6_VER 1      // model parameters version
+
+#define THERMAL_MODEL_E3D_V6_P 38.      // heater power (W)
+#define THERMAL_MODEL_E3D_V6_U 0.       // linear temperature coefficient (W/K/power)
+#define THERMAL_MODEL_E3D_V6_V 1.       // linear temperature intercept (W/power)
+
+#define THERMAL_MODEL_E3D_V6_C 12.1     // initial guess for heatblock capacitance (J/K)
+#define THERMAL_MODEL_E3D_V6_R 20.5     // initial guess for heatblock resistance (K/W)
+
+#define THERMAL_MODEL_E3D_V6_fS 0.065   // sim. 1st order IIR filter factor (f=100/27)
+#define THERMAL_MODEL_E3D_V6_LAG 2100   // sim. response lag (ms, 0-2160)
+
+#define THERMAL_MODEL_E3D_V6_W 1.2      // Default warning threshold (K/s)
+#define THERMAL_MODEL_E3D_V6_E 1.74     // Default error threshold (K/s)
+
+// fall-back resistance vector (R0-15)
+#define THERMAL_MODEL_E3D_V6_Rv {THERMAL_MODEL_E3D_V6_R, 18.4, 16.7, 15.2, 14.1, 13.3, 12.7, 12.1, 11.7, 11.3, 11., 10.8, 10.6, 10.4, 10.2, 10.1}